|Masayuki Mitsuka —President Mitsubishi Tanabe|
Both ‘0612L/H are liquid formulations of the current Parkinson’s disease (PD) standard-of-care L-dopa/carbidopa as NeuroDerm has circumvented challenging chemistry to overcome the short half-life and poor bioavailability that has plagued L-dopa oral use. A convenient, continuous infusion of L-dopa could offer substantial clinical benefits for more advanced PD patients, avoiding the fluctuations of peak-dose dyskinesias and wearing-off, plus the potential for improved quality of sleep and delayed morning “on” given night-time dosing. We forecast $1.7bn WW peak sales, including $900m in the US. Assuming 50% probability of success, arguably overly cautious given the products’ profile, and late-2019E launches we derive a $37/share NPV.